NBC-WSJ-Marist published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Indiana were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
NBC-WSJ-Marist poll results
According to the results, 41.0% of interviewees would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 48.0% would vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from April 26 to April 28 among 2149 registered voters. The sampling error is +/-2.1 points, which means that the poll results for the Republican and the Democratic candidate differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. As a result, one should not put too much trust in the results of an individual poll. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The resulting figures are 46.1% for Clinton and 53.9% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
An average of recent polls in Indiana has Trump at 55.0% of the two-party vote. In comparison to his numbers in the NBC-WSJ-Marist poll Trump's poll average is 1.1 percentage points better. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 54.9% of the two-party vote in Indiana. That is, Polly's prediction is 1.0 point above his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's margin of error.