Indiana: Trump with sustained advantage in WTHR/Howey Politics poll
By WTHR/Howey Politics released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Indiana were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
WTHR/Howey Politics poll results
The results show that 39.0% of respondents would give their vote to former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 47.0% are going to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from April 18 to April 21 among 500 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-4.0 points. This means that the levels of voter support for both candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be interpreted with caution, as they may contain substantial biases. Instead of relying on results from single polls, one should rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, you can translate them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 45.4% for Clinton and 54.7% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of Indiana polls, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 55.1%. Compared to his numbers in the WTHR/Howey Politics poll Trump's poll average is 0.4 percentage points better. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 54.9% of the two-party vote in Indiana. That is, Polly's prediction is 0.2 points above his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin shows that this deviation is negligible.
