Indiana: Jerome model shows Trump in the lead
The Jerome model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 43.4% for Clinton, and 56.6% for Trump in Indiana. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to end up with 56.6% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual models should be regarded with caution, as they can include large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single models, we recommend to consult combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 54.8% of the two-party vote in Indiana. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 1.8 percentage points less compared to the results of the Jerome model.