Illinois: Jerome model shows Clinton in the lead

The Jerome model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will receive 54.4% of the two-party vote share in Illinois, while Trump will win 45.6%. In comparison, on August 16 Trump was still predicted to gain 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single models may incorporate large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 58.2% of the two-party vote in Illinois. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 3.8 percentage points more compared to the results of the Jerome model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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