Results of a new poll carried out by FOX 5 Atlanta were circulated. The poll asked respondents from Georgia for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
FOX 5 Atlanta poll results
The results show that former New York Senator Hillary Clinton and billionaire Donald Trump can draw on the exact same level of support, each with 43.0% of the vote.
This poll was conducted from August 17 to August 17, among a random sample of 730 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.6 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls often include substantial biases, and should be treated with caution. Instead of relying on results from single polls, you should consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump in the two-party vote share. To compare: Only 48.2% was gained by Clinton in the FOX 5 Atlanta poll on August 1, for Trump this number was 51.8%.
Results compared to other polls
Looking at an average of Georgia polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 49.1%. When compared to the average forecast of other polls Clinton performed 0.9 percentage points better in the poll. This deviation is outside the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 47.8% and Trump 52.2% of the two-party vote in Georgia. Clinton has 2.2 percentage points more when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Georgia. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this deviation is significant.