Results of a new poll carried out by Gravis were announced. The poll asked respondents from Georgia for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Gravis poll results
Of those who replied, 44.0% said that they intend to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 45.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from August 4 to August 8, among a random sample of 1604 registered voters. If one takes into account the poll's margin of error of +/-2.5 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. As a result, a good strategy is to not have too much confidence in the results of an individual poll. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 49.4% for Clinton and 50.6% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Trump is currently at 51.0% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Georgia. This value is 0.4 percentage points higher than his corresponding numbers in the Gravis poll. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 52.2% of the two-party vote in Georgia. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 1.6 points above his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's sampling error.