FOX released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
FOX poll results
Of those who replied, 48.0% said that they plan to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 42.0% declared that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between August 28 and August 30. The sample size was 1011 participants. The error margin is +/-3.0 percentage points. This means that the poll results for Trump and Clinton differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be interpreted with caution, since they can contain large errors. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we translate them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 53.3% for Clinton and 46.7% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
An average of recent polls sees Clinton at 52.0% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.3 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the FOX poll. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 52.5% of the two-party vote. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 0.8 points below polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's sampling error.