Florida: Virtual tie between Clinton and Trump in new Jerome model
The Jerome model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 51.0% for Clinton, and 49.0% for Trump in Florida. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to gain only 49.0% of the vote.
In Florida, the election outcome is often decided by a narrow margin. This is why the state is commonly considered a purple state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Putting the results in context
Individual models should be interpreted with caution, since they often include substantial biases. Instead of relying on results from single models, the recommended strategy consult combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 51.5% of the two-party vote in Florida. The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 0.5 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Florida.