Florida: Trump holds whopping advantage in latest Florida Atlantic University*Florida Atlantic Unive poll
Florida Atlantic University*Florida Atlantic Unive released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Florida were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
In Florida, the election outcome is usually close. This is why the state is commonly viewed as a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Florida Atlantic University*Florida Atlantic Unive poll results
Of those who replied, 41.0% said that they plan to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 0.0% declared that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out . The sample size was 0 participants.
Putting the results in context
Single polls often contain large biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than relying on results from single polls, you should rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, you can translate them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 48.8% for Clinton and 51.2% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Florida polls, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 48.8%. Compared to her numbers in the Florida Atlantic University*Florida Atlantic Unive poll Trump's poll average is 2.4 percentage points worse.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote expects Trump to gain 48.5% of the two-party vote in Florida. This means that Polly's forecast is 2.7 points below her polling numbers.