FOX 13/Opinion Savvy published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Florida were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Florida is traditionally a swing state, where the Republican and Democratic candidates have often gained similar levels of voter support. Hence, the election outcome in that state is considered important in determining which party will win the majority of electoral votes.
FOX 13/Opinion Savvy poll results
The results show that 45.0% of respondents plan to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 44.0% would vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 10 to August 10. A total of 622 likely voters responded. If one takes into account the poll's error margin of +/-4.0 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be treated with caution, since they often include large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, the evidence-based approach is to use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.
For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields figures of 50.6% for Clinton and 49.4% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
An average of recent polls in Florida has Clinton at 51.2% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.6 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the FOX 13/Opinion Savvy poll. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 51.5% of the two-party vote in Florida. This means that the PollyVote is 0.9 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin indicates that this deviation is insignificant.