Florida: Clinton tied with Trump in new Quinnipiac poll
Quinnipiac released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Florida were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Florida is traditionally a purple state, where the Democratic and Republican candidates have historically gained similar levels of voter support. Therefore, the election outcome in that state is regarded crucial in determining who will win the majority of electoral votes.
Quinnipiac poll results
According to the results, real estate developer Donald Trump and former First Lady Hillary Clinton have identical levels of support, each with 47.0% of the vote.
The poll was carried out from August 29 to September 7 among 761 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.6 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be interpreted with caution, since they can include large errors. Rather than relying on results from single polls, one should use combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.
For the following analysis, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump concerning the two-party vote share. On August 1 Clinton obtained only 48.2% in the Quinnipiac poll and Trump obtained 51.9%.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Florida polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 50.2%. When compared to the average forecast of other polls Clinton performed 0.2 percentage points worse in the poll. This margin is outside the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 51.4% and Trump 48.6% of the two-party vote in Florida. Clinton has 1.4 percentage points less when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Florida. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error reveals that this deviation is significant.