Results of a new poll carried out by PPP (D) were published. The poll asked participants from Florida for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Historically, Florida has been a swing state, in which neither the Democrats nor the Republicans have had overwhelming support to clinch its electoral college votes. This is the reason why predictions here are of particular value.
PPP (D) poll results
Of those who answered the question, 47.0% said that they plan to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 46.0% declared that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 4 to September 6. A total of 744 likely voters responded. If one takes into account the poll's sampling error of +/-3.6 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Hence, don't put too much trust in the results of a single poll. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The resulting figures are 50.5% for Clinton and 49.5% for Trump. In the most recent PPP (D) poll on June 8 Clinton received only 49.4%, while Trump received 50.6%.
Results in comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of Florida polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 51.2%. In comparison to her numbers in the PPP (D) poll Clinton's poll average is 0.7 percentage points higher. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 51.5% of the two-party vote in Florida. That is, the PollyVote is 1.0 point above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's sampling error.