FL Chamber published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Florida were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Florida is traditionally a purple state, where the candidates of both major parties have historically won similar voter support. Therefore, the election outcome here is considered critical in determining which party will win the majority of electoral votes.
FL Chamber poll results
The results show that 43.0% of participants intend to give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 44.0% plan to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from August 17 to August 22, among a random sample of 608 likely voters. The error margin is +/-4.0 percentage points, which means that the levels of voter support for the Democratic and the Republican candidate do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be interpreted with caution, because they can include substantial biases. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the evidence-based approach is to consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following comparison, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The respective figures are 49.4% for Clinton and 50.6% for Trump. On April 27 Clinton obtained 50.6% in the FL Chamber poll and Trump obtained only 49.4%.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Florida has Trump at 48.8% of the two-party vote. Compared to her numbers in the FL Chamber poll Trump's poll average is 1.8 percentage points lower. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 48.5% of the two-party vote in Florida. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 2.1 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error reveals that this difference is insignificant.