Fair model: Trump with clear lead

The Fair model released an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 44.0% for Clinton, and 56.0% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. In general, one should not put too much trust in the results of an individual econometric model. At least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Trump currently runs at 50.4% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. Compared to numbers in the Fair model Trump's econometric model average is 5.6 percentage points lower.

The Fair model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The current PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 47.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 8.5 percentage points less compared to the results of the Fair model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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