Emerson published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Massachusetts were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Emerson poll results
According to the results, 50.0% of participants intend to cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 33.0% would vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between September 3 and September 5. The sample size was 500 likely voters. The error margin is +/-4.3 points, which means that the poll results for both candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls often incorporate large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 60.2% for Clinton and 39.8% for Trump.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 63.8% of the two-party vote in Massachusetts. This means that the combined PollyVote is 3.6 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error suggests that this deviation is insignificant.