DHM Research published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Oregon were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
DHM Research poll results
According to the results, 38.0% of respondents are going to give their vote to former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 25.0% plan to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted between September 1 and September 6. The sample size was 517 registered voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.3 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, don't have too much confidence in the results of a single poll. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 60.3% for Clinton and 39.7% for Trump.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 58.5% of the two-party vote in Oregon. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 1.8 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's error margin.