DeSart model: Trump with very clear lead in Texas

The DeSart model released an updated prediction of the election result. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 39.2% for Clinton, and 60.8% for Trump in Texas. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to achieve 60.9% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they may contain large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.

The DeSart model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The current PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 56.5% of the two-party vote in Texas. The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 4.3 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Texas.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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