DeSart model: Trump with very clear lead in Oklahoma
The DeSart model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model currently predicts a major vote share of 30.0% for Clinton, and 70.0% for Trump in Oklahoma. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to end up with 70.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single models can contain substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 64.9% of the two-party vote in Oklahoma. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 5.1 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart model.