DeSart model: Trump in Michigan trails by a small margin
The DeSart model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 52.5% of the two-party vote share in Michigan, while Trump will win 47.5%. In comparison, on August 16 Trump was still predicted to win 0.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, as they can contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single models, the recommended strategy use combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 54.5% of the two-party vote in Michigan. The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 2.0 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Michigan.