DeSart model: Trump in Illinois trails by a moderate margin

The DeSart model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 53.5% for Clinton, and 46.5% for Trump in Illinois. In comparison, on August 16 Trump was still predicted to achieve 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they often contain large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 58.2% of the two-party vote in Illinois. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 4.7 percentage points more compared to the results of the DeSart model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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