DeSart model in West Virginia: Trump with very clear lead
The DeSart model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 33.3% for Clinton, and 66.7% for Trump in West Virginia. In comparison, on September 7, Clinton was predicted to collect 66.7% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single models often incorporate substantial errors, and should be treated with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single models, forecasting research recommends to rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 62.1% of the two-party vote in West Virginia. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 4.6 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart model.