DeSart model in West Virginia: Trump with very clear lead
The DeSart model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 33.3% for Clinton, and 66.7% for Trump in West Virginia. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to collect 66.8% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual models should be treated with caution, because they can include substantial biases. Rather than trusting the results from single models, we recommend to rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.
The DeSart model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 62.3% of the two-party vote in West Virginia. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 4.4 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart model.