DeSart model in Vermont: Clinton with very clear lead

The DeSart model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 66.5% of the two-party vote share in Vermont, whereas Trump will end up with 33.5%. In comparison, on September 7, Clinton was predicted to achieve only 33.5% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, since they can contain large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the best practice scientific advice is to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 64.5% of the two-party vote in Vermont. The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 2.0 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Vermont.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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