The DeSart model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will receive 54.0% of the two-party vote share in Oregon, while Trump will win 46.0%. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to end up with only 46.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single models may include large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single models, the best practice is to look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.
The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 58.0% of the two-party vote in Oregon. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 4.0 percentage points more compared to the results of the DeSart model.