DeSart model in North Carolina: Trump with comfortable lead
The DeSart model released an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently predicts a major vote share of 46.4% for Clinton, and 53.6% for Trump in North Carolina. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to collect 53.6% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single models, as they sometimes contain large errors. Rather than relying on results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to consult combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.
The DeSart model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 49.9% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 3.7 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in North Carolina.