DeSart model in New Jersey: Clinton with clear lead

The DeSart model released an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 56.9% for Clinton, and 43.1% for Trump in New Jersey. In comparison, on August 16 Trump was still predicted to win 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single models should be treated with caution, because they may incorporate substantial biases. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 59.6% of the two-party vote in New Jersey. The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 2.7 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in New Jersey.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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