DeSart model in New Jersey: Clinton with clear lead
The DeSart model released an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 56.9% for Clinton, and 43.1% for Trump in New Jersey. In comparison, on August 16 Trump was still predicted to win 0.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single models should be treated with caution, because they may incorporate substantial biases. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 59.6% of the two-party vote in New Jersey. The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 2.7 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in New Jersey.