The DeSart model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 70.1% of the two-party vote share in Hawaii, while Trump will end up with 29.9%. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to gain only 29.9% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single models may contain substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single models, we recommend to rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which uses different data.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 65.7% of the two-party vote in Hawaii. The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 4.4 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Hawaii.