DeSart model in Arizona: Trump is in the lead

The DeSart model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model currently predicts a major vote share of 42.7% for Clinton, and 57.3% for Trump in Arizona. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to achieve 57.3% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, as they sometimes contain large errors. Rather than relying on results from single models, you should consult combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which uses different data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The most recent PollyVote expects Trump to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote in Arizona. The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 3.8 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Arizona.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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