DeSart model: Clinton with very clear lead in Hawaii
The DeSart model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 70.1% for Clinton, and 29.9% for Trump in Hawaii. In comparison, on September 7, Clinton was predicted to collect only 29.9% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single models should be regarded with caution, because they may include substantial biases. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 66.6% of the two-party vote in Hawaii. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 3.5 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart model.