DeSart model: Clinton in South Dakota trails by a very clear margin
The DeSart model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will receive 37.9% of the two-party vote share in South Dakota, whereas Trump will end up with 62.1%. In comparison, on August 16 Trump was predicted to win 0.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual models often include substantial errors, and should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 57.4% of the two-party vote in South Dakota. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 4.7 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart model.