DeSart model: Clinton in Missouri trails by a clear margin

The DeSart model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will garner 42.5% of the two-party vote share in Missouri, whereas Trump will end up with 57.5%. In comparison, on August 16 Trump was predicted to obtain 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single models, since they can contain large errors. Rather than relying on results from single models, the best practice scientific advice is to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The current PollyVote expects Trump to gain 53.4% of the two-party vote in Missouri. The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 4.1 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Missouri.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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