DeSart model: Clinton in Kentucky trails by a very clear margin

The DeSart model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will collect 35.5% of the two-party vote share in Kentucky, whereas Trump will end up with 64.5%. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to end up with 64.5% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual models can incorporate large errors, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single models, the best practice scientific advice is to look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which relies on different data.

The DeSart model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The current PollyVote expects Trump to gain 57.9% of the two-party vote in Kentucky. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 6.6 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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