The DeSart model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 42.1% of the two-party vote share in Indiana, while Trump will end up with 57.9%. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to end up with 57.9% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single models can incorporate large biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 54.8% of the two-party vote in Indiana. The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 3.1 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Indiana.