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DeSart model: Clinton in Indiana trails by a clear margin


The DeSart model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 42.1% of the two-party vote share in Indiana, while Trump will end up with 57.9%. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to end up with 57.9% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single models can incorporate large biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The current PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 54.8% of the two-party vote in Indiana. The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 3.1 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Indiana.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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