DeSart model: Clinton in Idaho trails by a very clear margin

The DeSart model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 30.4% for Clinton, and 69.6% for Trump in Idaho. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to gain 69.6% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they often incorporate large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the best practice scientific advice is to use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The most recent PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 65.7% of the two-party vote in Idaho. The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 3.9 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Idaho.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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