DeSart model: Clinton in Florida trails by a small margin
The DeSart model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 48.0% for Clinton, and 52.0% for Trump in Florida. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to win 52.1% of the vote.
Historically, Florida has been a swing state, in which neither the Democrats nor the Republicans have had overwhelming support to secure that state's electoral college votes. Hence, forecasts in this state are of particular importance.
Putting the results in context
Individual models should be interpreted with caution, because they often contain large biases. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 48.5% of the two-party vote in Florida. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 3.5 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart model.