Connecticut: Jerome model shows Clinton in the lead
The Jerome model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model currently predicts a major vote share of 53.5% for Clinton, and 46.5% for Trump in Connecticut. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to collect only 46.5% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, one should not have too much faith in the results of an individual econometric model. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 56.3% of the two-party vote in Connecticut. The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 2.8 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Connecticut.