Connecticut: Jerome model shows Clinton in the lead

The Jerome model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model currently predicts a major vote share of 53.5% for Clinton, and 46.5% for Trump in Connecticut. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to collect only 46.5% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, one should not have too much faith in the results of an individual econometric model. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 56.3% of the two-party vote in Connecticut. The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 2.8 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Connecticut.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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