FOX News released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Colorado were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
In Colorado, the election outcome is usually close. This is why the state is commonly viewed as a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
FOX News poll results
Of those who replied, 44.0% said that they plan to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 34.0% declared that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between July 9 and July 12. The sample size was 600 registered voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they can incorporate large errors. Rather than relying on results from single polls, you should rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, you can translate them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 56.4% for Clinton and 43.6% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Colorado polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 56.9%. Compared to her numbers in the FOX News poll Clinton's poll average is 0.5 percentage points higher. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier. The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 56.4% of the two-party vote in Colorado.