Results of a new poll conducted by Quinnipiac were published. The poll asked respondents from North Carolina for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Quinnipiac poll results
According to the results, 47.0% of respondents are going to give their vote to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 43.0% are going to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 29 to September 7. A total of 751 likely voters responded. Given the poll's error margin of +/-3.6 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be treated with caution, because they can include large biases. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 52.2% for Clinton and 47.8% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton currently achieves 50.4% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in North Carolina. This value is 1.8 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Quinnipiac poll. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 50.2% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 2.0 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error indicates that this deviation is insignificant.