Quinnipiac released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from New York were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Quinnipiac poll results
Of those who answered the question, 47.0% said that they will vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 35.0% said that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted between July 13 and July 17. The sample size was 1104 registered voters. The margin of error is +/-3.0 percentage points. This means that the levels of voter support for Clinton and Trump differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be interpreted with caution, because they often contain large errors. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 57.3% for Clinton and 42.7% for Trump. In the most recent Quinnipiac poll on April 27 Clinton received 61.6%, while Trump received only 38.4%.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of New York polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 61.3%. Relative to her numbers in the Quinnipiac poll Clinton's poll average is 4 percentage points better. This difference is outside the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 61.9% of the two-party vote in New York. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 4.6 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's error margin.