Fairleigh Dickinson released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from New Jersey were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Fairleigh Dickinson poll results
Of those who answered the question, 52.0% said that they would vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 31.0% indicated that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from June 22 to June 26, among a random sample of 363 registered voters. If one accounts for the poll's error margin of +/-3.8 percentage points, the spread in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Hence, one should not put too much trust in the results of an individual poll. Instead of relying on results from single polls, we recommend to use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in values of 62.7% for Clinton and 37.4% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton currently runs at 56.8% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in New Jersey. Compared to her numbers in the Fairleigh Dickinson poll Clinton's poll average is 5.9 percentage points lower. This deviation is outside the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 59.4% of the two-party vote in New Jersey. That is, the combined PollyVote is 3.3 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error reveals that this deviation is negligible.