Clinton leads in New Hampshire by 9 points in latest CBS News/YouGov poll
CBS News/YouGov released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from New Hampshire were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Historically, New Hampshire has been a battleground state, in which neither the GOP nor the Democrats have had overwhelming support to clinch its electoral college votes. This is why predictions here are of particular importance.
CBS News/YouGov poll results
The results show that 45.0% of respondents said that they would give their vote to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 36.0% are going to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 10 to August 12 with 990 likely voters. Given the poll's error margin of +/-4.3 percentage points, the difference between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be treated with caution, since they often contain substantial biases. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we translate them into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 55.6% for Clinton and 44.4% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of New Hampshire polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 54.8%. In comparison to her numbers in the CBS News/YouGov poll Clinton's poll average is 0.8 percentage points lower. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 54.4% of the two-party vote in New Hampshire. This means that Polly's forecast is 1.2 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this difference is negligible.