OpinionWorks published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Maryland were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
OpinionWorks poll results
The results show that 54.0% of interviewees are going to give their vote to former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 25.0% would vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 18 to August 30 with 754 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.6 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be regarded with caution, as they can contain substantial errors. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 68.4% for Clinton and 31.7% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
Clinton is currently at 69.1% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Maryland. In comparison to her numbers in the OpinionWorks poll Clinton's poll average is 0.7 percentage points better. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 64.5% of the two-party vote in Maryland. This means that Polly's prediction is 3.9 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error indicates that this deviation is significant.