Clinton leads in Florida by 5 points in latest CBS News/YouGov poll
CBS News/YouGov released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Florida were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Florida is traditionally a battleground state, where the candidates of both major parties have historically won similar levels of support among voters. This is why the election outcome in that state is regarded critical in determining who will win the majority of electoral votes.
CBS News/YouGov poll results
The results show that 45.0% of respondents plan to give their vote to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 40.0% are going to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from August 10 to August 12 with 1194 likely voters. Considering the poll's margin of error of +/-3.6 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be treated with caution, since they may contain large biases. Rather than relying on results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can convert them into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields values of 52.9% for Clinton and 47.1% for Trump. In the latest CBS News/YouGov poll on June 27 Clinton received only 51.8%, while Trump received 48.2%.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Florida sees Clinton at 51.2% of the two-party vote. Compared to her numbers in the CBS News/YouGov poll Clinton's poll average is 1.7 percentage points worse. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 51.5% of the two-party vote in Florida. Hence, the PollyVote is 1.4 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's error margin.