Clinton leads in Connecticut by 15 points in new Emerson poll
Results of a new poll administered by Emerson were released. The poll asked interviewees from Connecticut for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Emerson poll results
Of those who replied, 50.0% said that they will vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 35.0% revealed that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from September 2 to September 5 among 1000 likely voters. Given the poll's sampling error of +/-3.0 percentage points, the spread in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be treated with caution, since they often contain substantial biases. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The respective figures are 58.8% for Clinton and 41.2% for Trump. In the most recent Emerson poll on August 1 Clinton obtained only 54.6%, while Trump obtained 45.5%.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 57.1% of the two-party vote in Connecticut. Hence, Polly's prediction is 1.7 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's error margin.