California: Substantial lead for Clinton in CBS News/YouGov poll
Results of a new poll administered by CBS News/YouGov were circulated. The poll asked participants from California for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
CBS News/YouGov poll results
Of those who responded, 48.0% said that they would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 33.0% revealed that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from May 31 to June 3 with 1187 likely voters. If one takes into account the poll's sampling error of +/-3.9 percentage points, the gap in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they sometimes contain large errors. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The resulting figures are 59.3% for Clinton and 40.7% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
Clinton is currently at 63.4% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in California. This value is 4.1 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the CBS News/YouGov poll. This margin is outside the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 61.3% of the two-party vote in California. That is, Polly's forecast is 2.0 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error indicates that this difference is insignificant.