Clinton and Trump virtually tied in new Convention bump model
The Convention bump model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 51.2% for Clinton, and 48.8% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single models, since they often incorporate large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single models, we recommend to look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.
Comparison to other econometric models
If we look at an average of econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 49.6%. Compared to numbers in the Convention bump model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.6 percentage points worse.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.3 percentage points more compared to the results of the Convention bump model.