Clinton and Trump virtually tied in latest Lewis-Beck & Tien model
The Lewis-Beck & Tien model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 51.1% for Clinton, and 48.9% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
Individual models often incorporate substantial errors, and should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
Looking at an average of econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 49.6%. This value is 1.5 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Lewis-Beck & Tien model.
The Lewis-Beck & Tien model compared with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.4 percentage points more compared to the results of the Lewis-Beck & Tien model.