Clinton and Trump virtually tied in latest Lewis-Beck & Tien model

The Lewis-Beck & Tien model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 51.1% for Clinton, and 48.9% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Individual models often incorporate substantial errors, and should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 49.6%. This value is 1.5 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Lewis-Beck & Tien model.

The Lewis-Beck & Tien model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.4 percentage points more compared to the results of the Lewis-Beck & Tien model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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