IBD released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
IBD poll results
Of those who responded, 44.0% said that they would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 43.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 26 to September 1 with 861 participants. There is a sampling error of +/-3.4 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be treated with caution, since they can contain large errors. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we convert them into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 50.6% for Clinton and 49.4% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
Clinton can currently count on 52.1% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls. This value is 1.5 percentage points higher than corresponding numbers in the IBD poll. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.5% of the two-party vote. Hence, Polly's prediction is 1.9 points above polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's error margin.