Clinton and Trump neck-and-neck in new Time-for-change model

The Time-for-change model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 48.6% for Clinton, and 51.4% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, since they sometimes incorporate large errors. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models has Trump at 50.4% of the two-party vote. Compared to numbers in the Time-for-change model Trump's econometric model average is 1 percentage point worse.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The current PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 47.5% of the two-party vote. The results of the Time-for-change model for Trump are thus 3.9 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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