CBS News/YouGov published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from North Carolina were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
CBS News/YouGov poll results
Of those who replied, 46.0% said that they intend to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 42.0% revealed that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from August 30 to September 2 among 1088 likely voters. Considering the poll's sampling error of +/-4.0 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be regarded with caution, because they often contain substantial errors. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 52.3% for Clinton and 47.7% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton is currently at 50.7% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in North Carolina. This value is 1.6 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the CBS News/YouGov poll. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 50.2% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 2.1 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error reveals that this difference is negligible.